As is often the situation just before I marathon I give thought to what running I have done since my last marathon, and therefore and assessment of my fitness and recovery from my last marathon. Leading to a loosely conceived race plan for the day.
No marathon last weekend so I am on the way to recovery from it and the 100 miler the week before. The first week after the marathon I did not run until the Thursday and then easy for a few days. I felt good and so ran my just under 14k loop as a TT on Tuesday. I have not run it seriously for 3 months or so as when I was running weekly marathons I run it but it was never pushed.
When I was not running weekly marathons in March to May I hovered around 66 minutes or just on 5 minute pace. The I banged out a 64.48 in early May and have not been within 4 minutes of that since. Tuesday 63.53 - the quickest ever. The Wednesday before meeting up with some friends I did a Bay run in 30.24 - not the sub 30 I ran in March but okay.
Conclusion: I am running as good as I have in training all year.
Last year at this even with something just over 4 hours as I ran with a friend to the end. And the year before at 3.48 is no guide as that year I was not running the times that I am this year. Sydney 3.31 just 2 weeks ago.
So .... decisions decisions ... not really. The course is flat flat flat so the only thought from the start will be pacing at a 3.29 or better finish. All that can happen is that the temperature or wind will work against that and it will happen. In this one I will not finish wondering if I could have gone quicker - that will happen out on the course.
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